The Fallout from A Levels, What Next?
Published on: Monday, August 17, 2020
As the turmoil surrounding last week’s publication of A level results shows no sign of dying down, I thought it might be useful for me to put my own thoughts on the matter down in writing. What follows should be seen against a backdrop of deep disappointment and puzzlement here at King's: far too many of our own students have been harshly treated by the exam boards.
Let’s start at the beginning. This cohort of students was not able to sit A level examinations in the summer. Quite rightly, the government was keen that they should nonetheless receive grades for their subjects in order for them to be able to move on. The difficult part was deciding how best to generate those grades. Clearly there had to be significant school input. Clearly no system was ever going to be perfect (every year we are surprised by some of our students’ results – no system can predict how a candidate will perform with 100% accuracy). And, to my mind, clearly there had to be some sort of external moderation.
This last point is important. If schools were simply asked to come up with the final grades themselves there would have been massive grade inflation. That is inevitable: we all want the best for our students and given the chance we would always err on the optimistic side. So some system of making sure that grades remained roughly in line with previous years was necessary. Otherwise this year’s A level results would have been devalued and would always be treated with suspicion by future employers.
The idea, then, was to produce an algorithm which would tweak each school’s results so that they more or less fell in line with the typical pattern of grades for each department in each school. For very small departments, where there was not enough historical data to be statistically secure, the grades would not be changed. Much has been made of this in the press – but in fact it is, by definition, not statistically all that relevant. The great majority of grades in independent schools were still subject to the algorithmic moderation process.
At King’s we took the process of generating grades and rank orders for our pupils very seriously indeed. At the same time as our teachers were working their socks off to sustain an excellent remote learning programme, they were asked to spend a great deal of time and thought sifting through all the data we held on each GCSE and A level candidate. Reams of data were sent to each department: the results of baseline testing, previous public exams, previous internal exams, significant pieces of work produced etc etc. They were also asked to use their judgement about the character and habits of each individual pupil – were they the sort of person who pulled it out of the bag at the last minute? The idea was to predict how well each candidate would have done had they sat the examinations. Those predicted grades and those rankings were then sent through to a small group of senior King’s staff for internal moderation. That group compared the pattern of the predicted grades in each subject with the historical patterns of the past three years. In several cases departments were asked to adjust their predictions to bring them more into line with past averages. We arrived at what we were confident was a sensible, honest, measured set of grades for our candidates, which properly reflected the abilities and hard work of this particular cohort, and which we then submitted formally to the boards.
Last year our students set a new record for A level results. This, we believe, is part of a generally upward trend for the school – we have made good progress in improving the effectiveness of our teaching and learning, and we continue to refine and develop our methodology in preparing candidates for exams. It was also due to the make-up of that year group. We are not a large school, and inevitably some year groups are academically stronger than others. A measure of the integrity of our centre assessed grades: Last year we achieved 77% A* to B grades. The grades we submitted this year, after that long and thoughtful process, would have given us 71% A* to B. We did not take the mickey, we did not abuse the system.
But, as I say, some form of moderation was inevitable. We trusted Ofqual to get that right.
But clearly they have not. When our final results came out last week there were some, many, jaw-droppingly ridiculous down-grades. One girl had been predicted a C grade in chemistry and ended up with a U. So the board was essentially saying that, in an examination she was not able to take, she failed. There is no chance on earth that she would have failed that exam. She was a solid C candidate. On a very bad day she might have dropped to a D. On very good day she might have raised her game to a B or even better. She could not have “failed”. And there are ridiculous downgrades of that sort wherever you look. 45% of the carefully-considered grades we submitted were reduced by the algorithm. The final pattern for the school, including the now 61% A* to B rate, is wholly out of kilter with what our pupils have achieved before.
So what has happened? I think it is simple: the algorithm stinks. They got it wrong. The idea might have been sound, but the execution was a disaster. An algorithm is a recipe made up to try to do a particular task. They just got the recipe wrong. And it wouldn’t have taken much checking of the results for individual schools to see that it was wrong, and to make adjustments to the algorithm. Ofqual have had five months to get this right. Particularly galling is the fact that most exam boards have reduced their usual exam fees by very little, if at all. We are having to pass onto parents a significant cost to pay for the privilege of being royally stitched up.
What happens next? The problem here is time. There are candidates who need their grades to be sensibly raised in order to secure their places at university in the next few days. At the same time we are about to face a, presumably, similar storm when GCSE results come out. And at the same time were are working flat out to prepare the school for opening in September under tight and complex Covid rules. Bandwidth is an issue, and would be an issue even if we knew what the appeals process looked like. But as of now we still don’t know. Neither the government nor Ofqual are saying anything. It’s a mess.
Frankly, it does seem now that the only way forward is for Centre Assessed Grades to be accepted. At this stage the serious and very real drawback of grade inflation is, I believe, outweighed by the anger and mistrust of students and schools, and there really is no time left for a meaningful appeals process. Which school has the capacity to manage a complex appeals operation while at the same time coping with the (inevitable) fallout from the GCSE results and preparing for a post-Covid reopening in a few days’ time? If my students were simply awarded the grades we had given them I would sleep easily, knowing that we, at King’s, had done as fair a job as possible under the circumstances and that the grades were a much better reflection of their abilities than those they have been awarded by the boards. I can’t answer for other centres, and it may be that some have pushed the boundaries unrealistically, but for my own students I believe that would be a sensible outcome.
The original plan made sense and most independent schools supported it. The philosophy was sound, but the implementation was bungled, to the detriment of hundreds of thousands of angry and disappointed young men and women. I don’t think, with the national mood as it is now, that any attempt to sort the mess out while maintaining some sort of downward moderation of inflated grades will either be accepted or be completed in time. That leaves the grades predicted by the schools as the only practical way forward.
I posted this blog online only 45 minutes before the announcement that Ofqual were, after all, going to accept the CAGs! We are pleased with this outcome, though it is not ideal. The effect of grade inflation will have an impact on this cohort, whose results will, I suspect, be looked at with suspicion in future. It will be interesting to see how universities manage what is now a very tricky situation: on the basis of last week’s grades places have been secured or denied and most courses are now full. Universities are in an impossible position: having turned down a student on the basis of last week’s grades, what do they do when that same student now finds she has the offer grades after all?
For students taking a gap year and hoping to reapply to university, things also look difficult. Firstly, their grades will be treated with some suspicion and, secondly, universities will have over-recruited this year and possibly have less space next year. But, as I have said to my son, bright, hardworking, interested students will always be in demand. Let’s hope that’s true!
Coronavirus, the Pros and Cons
Published on: Monday, April 6, 2020
Instead of a worthy account of how we are managing the challenge of the pandemic here at King’s, I thought it might be a bit more fun to try to think of all the positives, and possibly some of the less well known negatives. I’ll keep this list alive and update it every few days. Please do get in touch with comments and suggestions for more entries.
|We have never eaten so well in our lives||We have never eaten so much in our lives|
|Thank goodness this is happening in the digital age||I spend 90% of my day staring at a screen|
|Our dogs are loving the company and the attention||Jasper has gone into overdrive and has hidden one shoe out of every pair that I own|
|We are doing a lot of gardening||With old seeds that we’ve found at the back of the cupboard and potatoes from our vegetable rack that have begun to sprout. Will planting a garlic bulb really work?|
|The newspapers are full of puzzles||There has been an explosion of truly execrable poetry on Radio 4|
|We get to spend time with our family||We have to spend time with our family|
|Social networking means we share lots of funny videos||If anybody sends me the video of the mother drinking from a box of wine with a straw again I’ll scream|
|We’re finally getting round to exploring the darker recesses of the drinks cabinet||I have no idea why some of that stuff is in there. I have one ceramic bottle of some colourless liquid, with Japanese writing on it, and not a clue what it is|
|The resident community of staff at school has pulled together like never before. We have a vibrant WhatsApp group that keeps us all in touch with messages and offers of help with shopping||We get to see each others’ shopping lists. What is Ms Crandley going to do with cherry tomatoes, gravy granules and a block of butter?|
|We have drawn up a list of odd jobs that need doing around the house on a special whiteboard we’ve installed in the kitchen||Every evening the whiteboard mocks me|
|We can hear birdsong all the time||The seagulls are taking over|
|Mrs Biggs is working hard to improve our cinematic literacy||This evening we’re watching another light-hearted black and white romantic romp starring James Stewart and Myrna Loy|
|The school grounds are looking lovelier than ever||And so few people to enjoy them|
|We are able to go for walks around the school site||When I manage to find that shoe…|
|The boys are really into their cooking||We have to keep our dishwasher going full time to cope with the bombsite|
|We’re playing a lot of board games||Isn’t it extraordinary how much argument a game of Trivial Pursuit can generate?|
|The petrol and diesel prices have fallen dramatically||We’re not allowed to drive anywhere|
Mrs Biggs' Must-See Classic Movies
Published on: Monday, March 30, 2020
My Wife, Sarah, who is a classic movie fanatic, has provided the following list of movies that she thinks everybody should see to improve their movie literacy. The current lockdown might be a great time to order up some of these. She will suggest more as time goes by!
A Matter of Life and Death – intriguing wartime film that is hard to categorise: part romance, part supernatural, but inspirational. David Niven stars.
Some Like it Hot – iconic comedy starring Tony Curtis, Jack Lemmon and Marilyn Monroe – unforgettable scenes and lines.
Strangers on a Train – Alfred Hitchcock directs this film about an unconventional pact – which only one party intends to stick to.
Kind Hearts and Coronets – British comedy about a young man’s attempts to kill off all the members of his family who lie between him and an inheritance – all played by Alec Guinness.
The Odd Couple – Written by Neil Simon - two friends (Walter Matthau and Jack Lemmon, again) attempt to live together, before finding out each other’s infuriating foibles. Hysterical and very true-to-life.
Lawrence of Arabia – story of TE Lawrence, filmed on an epic scale and with a beautiful score. Worth watching for Omar Sharif appearing out of the desert.
The Secret Life of Walter Mitty – the original, with Danny Kaye. Fabulous depiction of 1940s America, all in Technicolor.
Casablanca – wartime drama with Humphrey Bogart and Ingrid Bergman, with smart dialogue and truly moving moments.
Dr Strangelove – cold-war dark comedy about The Bomb, with Peter Sellers playing several roles equally brilliantly. V funny.
The Thin Man – detective story really just an excuse for snappy comic dialogue from William Powell and Myrna Loy – hugely stylish 1930s setting; was so popular they made around 5 more.
The Ups and Down of Lent
Published on: Monday, March 9, 2020
Part of the thrill of being a Head arises from one simple fact: we are spectacularly unprepared for the job. The usual path to Headship begins with teaching. We go into teaching because we feel a calling and because we love passing on our own passion for our subject to young people. If we’re good at that we get promoted, to Head of Department, or to Houseparent, and then on to a senior management position, eventually securing that first post as a Head, for which we have never really trained. Having started as teachers we do less and less of the thing we came into education to do, and more and more administration, and have to learn the skills required on the hoof. Nothing can properly prepare you for Headship. There is no doubt that the skills required of the modern Head are many and varied, and certainly more so than was the case, say, twenty or thirty years ago.
Having started out as successful teachers, we Heads are expected to know about, and have some expertise in: finances, marketing, human resources, employment and family law, technology, health and safety, child safeguarding, local and international politics and economics, developmental psychology, project management, inspection methodology, curriculum development, logistics and, of course, the latest thinking in the theory of education. Add a smattering of theology and a working knowledge of the art of public speaking, and you get a job which, at least in the first half dozen years or so, requires an extraordinarily steep learning curve from classroom chalky to experienced and competent Head.
All of which makes, as I say, for a thrilling ride. If you like the idea of getting up each morning not quite knowing what the day holds for you, and if you are happy to switch between chatting to a 13-year-old about her history project to chatting to an architect about the plans for your latest multi-million-pound project to chatting to the editor of the local newspaper about why you believe your school is a benefit to the local community, then this job is for you. But this term that range of knowledge has been extended even further. There is a new expertise expected of all Heads: we’re now required to have a working knowledge of epidemiology!
This is what we do know about the coronavirus. Firstly, it has spread with extraordinary speed, so that the picture has changed by the day, and our thinking and response as a school one week have had to be re-formulated by the next. We asked pupils from the Far East not to go home over half term, and parents were brilliant in supporting us in that request. Now the infection has spread, and soon the virus will be so ubiquitous that to single out specific regions as being more dangerous will be pointless. Secondly, the virus is not as deadly as the overheated press coverage suggests it is. Best estimates now put its mortality rate at about 1%. That is still ten times more lethal than common flu, but not nearly as dangerous as SARS, MERS or Ebola. From our point of view, as a school community, an important fact is that young, healthy teenagers seem to be treated very mildly by the virus. We should not be overly concerned about the risk posed to our children. Nonetheless, young people can pass the virus on to others who are more vulnerable and we have to do all we can to slow down its spread within our school, for the sake of others who are more at risk. Thirdly, although we know no details yet, the chances are that this outbreak will severely disrupt the normal working and rhythms of our school community as it runs its course. To this end we have decided to keep a boarding house open over the Easter holidays.A logistical challenge of the highest order, this will require hard work and the loyal support of members of staff, but I am sure it is the right thing to do. Parents of pupils in examination year groups, especially, will be worried about the risk of bringing their children home over Easter, only to find that travel restrictions have been tightened up and their children can’t get back for the exams. We have also drawn up plans for how we would teach remotely if all or some pupils could not attend school.There are plans, too, for what we will do if we need to isolate pupils on site.
All the planning is in place. We wait now to see what the next few weeks and months will bring. I suspect it is going to be a bumpy ride.
Global outbreaks of viral infections aside, this has been a testing term in other ways too. The weather has been almost unfailingly wet and gloomy which doesn’t help the general mood, and also means that our playing fields have been largely out of action all term. Our football and rugby sevens programmes have been severely disrupted. But lots of sport has carried on unaffected, and it has, as ever, been a pleasure to watch some really good netball, hockey, squash, badminton and swimming.
In fact the successes have continued to come thick and fast, and it is very important not to lose sight of the extraordinary things our pupils do day in and day out. We have hockey and football teams through to the final rounds of national competitions. Our debating team is in the finals of the ESU Mace competition in London next week, having won the regional round here at King’s against tough opposition. At the start of term we learnt that we had come top of the A level table in Somerset for our results last summer, both for overall grades and for value added. Our Fifth Form drama pupils performed a brilliant set of GCSE pieces last week, and expectations for top marks are high. One of our musicians won more than an armful of silverware at the recent Taunton Music Festival (I know it was more than an armful because he couldn’t carry it all in one go at assembly). Last night I attended the opening of an exhibition of pupil’s work at an art gallery near Wellington; a superb collection of thoughtfully conceived and skilfully executed pieces, which underline the artistic renaissance we have enjoyed at King’s in recent years.
A week ago we welcomed the 13+ scholarship hopefuls to King’s for their testing in the various areas. There were more of them than ever before, and the sense for all of us was that the quality of the candidates was exceptionally high. Some difficult decisions had to be made, and I know that some very talented young people will be disappointed. But they will all be wonderful additions to our community, they will all thrive here and contribute widely, and they will all be welcomed with open arms in September.
We have been planning for the future in other ways too, not least in making a number of key appointments. Two houseparents are hanging up their duty mobile phones at the end of the next term, which left two vacancies in absolutely critical posts. The fact that we had a good number of excellent internal candidates applying speaks volumes for the quality and loyalty of our staff, and their willingness to get stuck into the all-important boarding life of the school (I know that many schools would have to advertise externally for houseparent posts). We made two strong appointments, and I wish Claire Phillips and Steve King every success for the excitement ahead. We also had a strong field of (external) candidates applying for the post of Head of our new Psychology Department – we are going to offer the subject at A level from September. Again, we have made an excellent appointment of a dynamic teacher, who has plenty of experience both as a teacher and as a practising psychologist. We look forward to welcoming Dr Simon Noyce and his family to Taunton and to King’s in a few months’ time. I rather suspect that psychology is going to be a very popular A level choice in the coming years.
So all in all a very strange term so far – a mixture of apocalyptic trials and bucketloads of good news and success, and, despite the trials, optimism about the future. The constant is the spirit of the school, of the pupils and parents and colleagues who roll their sleeves up and get on with life. Sarah and I are also acutely aware that these are the final few months when we will have a child in the school. It has been a pleasure to see cost unit number two flourishing and grabbing every chance. But time is rapidly ebbing away and I know that the Leavers’ Ball will be on us in a flash. So it’s a poignant time too.
Walking into a New Year
Published on: Monday, September 9, 2019
It is always something of a relief when, after plenty of preparation and INSET and meetings, the new term finally gets underway. And the joys and trials of the summer break rapidly fade into distant memory.
Our INSET this year had a lovely, different twist to it. Instead of meeting in classrooms to discuss weighty matters of educational import our Deputy Head, Academic, arranged for the whole body of teaching staff to go for a walk. I am proud of the fact that everybody who could (ie were not tied up with pre-season training or Duke of Edinburgh expeditions), did – there were about 60 of us tramping along the north Somerset coastline. We walked to the little church at Culbone, the smallest parish church in England, where we squeezed in for a quick service, led by Father Mark. Then down to Porlock Weir for a refreshment at the Lower Ship Inn, then back inland and uphill, to the Upper Ship Inn for lunch. Along each leg we were given a particular topic to discuss by our new Teaching and Learning Coordinator, Emma Forward. The whole thing worked beautifully and I can recommend it highly as a brilliant way to get a new year underway. My knees still ache, but it was worth it!
We welcomed 136 new pupils and about ten new members of staff to King’s College this week. The new intake is the lifeblood of the school. As I always say to the new boys and girls, what this school looks like in five years’ time depends to some extent on them – what they make of the opportunities, how they grow and the ideas and passions they bring with them and which they develop while they are here.
My first week of the academic year, after the initial flurry of speeches and assembly, is usually fairly serene; I sit in my office, or cycle round the school or wander the corridors while the team gets on with it. I always hope that new pupils find this an easy school to settle into, and for most it is. Some find the quirkiness more of a challenge, but in the end, and usually by the end of the first week, they become old hands. We are not quite as arcane as some independent schools, and our language is fairly standard. You won’t see a reference to “grumbles will be taken by the Rising Fourth every third dropper on Bumper’s Field during Martinmas Term” in our diary! But some of our routines must seem strange, nonetheless, and take some getting used to.
The summer does seem to have flown by. The end of last term was as exciting and poignant as ever, with the last day being particularly memorable for all the right reasons. And then the weeks of summer just flew by. For one reason or another we did not, this year, go anywhere too exotic or for too long. In fact, our holiday consisted of a three-day trip to Ely. And jolly good it was too. Great cathedral. Very, very flat countryside.
Towards the end of the summer break each year we receive our GCSE and A level results, an event for which we wait with much anticipation. Being a relatively small and not particularly selective school our overall results do go up and down a bit year by year. This was very definitely an up year. We could not have been more delighted with our A level results, which were at an all-time high for King’s, and also with the GCSEs, which were within a percentage point our best ever. The achievements of some of our candidates were simply astonishing, and it was particularly pleasing to see how many A level students, in particular, really pulled it out of the bag. And as I said in the press release, the extraordinary thing is that those same young men and women did not take the foot off the pedal in terms of their wider commitment to the school. Our four captains and vice-captains managed straight A*s and As, despite the very real burden of service placed on them during the year. Our sporting and musical and dramatic and arty and outdoorsy enthusiasts also did well academically. Which serves to underline my belief that, far from hindering progress, a wide involvement in the co-curricular programme actually supports exam success. And it means those same students will be heading off to university with a “hinterland” of interests and skills that are going to stand them in good stead. It’ll make them more interesting people for one thing.
Do all families find the start of a new term a bit of a shock? Uniform has to be gathered, shirts ironed, forms filled in. Our beloved cocker spaniel Jasper is an extraordinarily effective entropy-creating machine. I do have a pair of smart, quite expensive and new-ish formal black shoes. Or at least I did. If anyone sees the right shoe lying around please let me know. Jasper refuses to tell me where he’s hidden it.
It has been the cricketing summer of our lives, rivalling the excitement of 2005, I think. It was great to see Jos Buttler OA playing an important part in the final of the World Cup. And Tom Banton and Eddie Byrom have been doing well for Somerset. Tom was a key player in the one-day county final at Lord’s, which Oliver and I were fortunate to see. Somerset might even win the championship for the first time ever. I look forward to seeing the last few games at the County Ground.
I don’t want to dwell on politics in this blog, but it says something about the current state of uncertainty in the UK that I get pitying texts and emails from my relatives in South Africa. Next week I will take my first Third Form class for Current Affairs. Where will I start? I’ll remind them, as I have reminded Third Formers now for about three years, that they live in Interesting Times and that they really ought to be paying attention, because their grandchildren will be asking them about these days. Were you really there, grandma?
Finally, a sweet story to share. Our Director of Development Julian Mack, owns a company which organises an annual, large-scale cross-Britain cycle tour. The tour sets off from Land’s End this Saturday and ends in John o’ Groats eight days later.About 900 people take part.Julian gives an evening pep-talk to the riders each day, and asked me for some anecdotes and jokes which might be useful. I sent him a smorgasbord of material to pick at, which included this simple story:
In the days when an ice cream sundae cost much less, a 10 year old boy entered a hotel coffee shop and sat at a table. A waitress put a glass of water in front of him.
“How much is an ice cream sundae?”
“50 cents,” replied the waitress.
The little boy pulled his hand out of his pocket and studied a number of coins in it.
“How much is a dish of plain ice cream?” he inquired. Some people were now waiting for a table and the waitress was a bit impatient.
“35 cents,” she said brusquely.
The little boy again counted the coins. “I’ll have the plain ice cream,” he said.
The waitress brought the ice cream, put the bill on the table and walked away. The boy finished the ice cream, paid the cashier and departed.
When the waitress came back, she began wiping down the table and then swallowed hard at what she saw.
There, placed neatly beside the empty dish, were 15 cents – her tip.